Can America Save Itself?

That will depend on how many Americans believe in the possibility of a different future and are prepared to fight for it.

I wrote the title of this post before the recent elections in which, among a raft of overwhelming victories for Democrats in gubernatorial and other elections, Zohran Mamdani’s elevation to Mayor of New York City justifiably stole the headlines.

If things had gone the other way; if there had been no indication that Americans in sufficient numbers were prepared to use their votes to protest the heinous policies of the Trump administration, then my answer to the above question would have been a reluctant no. But, like Joe Biden’s victory in 2020, these results provide clear evidence that despite the efforts of the far-right to subvert democracy and the rule of law, the authoritarian take over of America is not yet a done deal. Democracy survives. There is hope.

And with news that Trump’s approval rating has fallen to it’s lowest level (37%) since the aftermath of the attack on the Capitol in January 2021, there is further reason for optimism. Mind you, given that 36% of Americans were still inclined to support him after he’d incited treason, it’s unlikely to drop much further.

As long as his health holds, Trump will always pose a threat. And while none of his putative successors are likely to match his electoral success, after this setback he is bound to ramp up efforts to corrupt the institutions of democracy and so render future elections - assuming they are held - unwinnable by anyone except his own side.

No Time for Complacency

Of course we should celebrate these successes, but there is no room for complacency. As David Smith wrote in the aftermath of Mamdani’s victory:

‘… while losing elections is bad, misreading the results can be worse. When Democrats narrowly lost the House of Representatives in 2022 but outperformed expectations, they took it as a sign that all was well with the status quo. Instead of challenging Joe Biden, they let him run for a second presidential term and paid the price.’

Smith goes on to point out that while Mamdani won by rejecting the status quo, the two gubernatorial victors - Mike Sherrill in New Jersey and Abigail Spanberger in Virginia, were mainstream Democrats. All three results were to some extent a protest, but they do not imply a permanent turning of the tide against Trump’s brand of racist authoritarianism, which 37% of Americans still happily support.

37% may not be a majority, but given notoriously low turn-outs, the vagaries of the electoral college system, and the likelihood of Trump and his allies having more success in their attempts at gerrymandering, it could easily be enough to keep Trump in power, both via next year’s mid-terms and the presidential election in 2028.

It would be extremely unwise to rely on the 63% of voters currently happy to express their disapproval of Trump to pollsters, to follow through and actually vote against him come election time. Some of those who voted for him last time must be persuaded not to do so again.

Telling the Truth

There are at least five narratives that Trump’s opponents could employ to try to convince wavering voters to jump ship:

1. His economic policies do not and will not deliver for ordinary Americans. 61% already believe Trump has made things worse, and 47% think the economy and the cost of living is the most important issue facing the country.

2. His disregard for the constitution and the rule of law will propel the US towards a form of authoritarian government impossible to overturn without a civil war. That only 26% cite the state of American democracy as their biggest concern indicates how much people take the constitution for granted.

3. Immigration is not the reason many Americans are feeling worse off than their parents’ generation, and in any case it’s only a top concern for 10% of voters.

4. Progress in coming to terms with the country’s racist past is already being reversed; the civil rights gains of the last six decades could unravel very quickly.

5. The sheer immorality of many of the Trump administration’s policies should make people stop and think. Pollsters don't generally ask moral questions in respect of politics, but it’s encouraging that 68% think things are going pretty or very badly.

Zohran Mamdani won so convincingly because he was able to translate each of these narratives into stories that helped thousands of voters better understand the political and economic reality, and to realise that, while Trump cares nothing for their situation, the mainstream of the Democratic Party would also fail to implement measures to improve their lives because of its commitment to the status quo.

I’m not sure this indicates the end of traditional two party politics in the United States, but I do think it’s possible that the Democratic Party could be taken over - in much the same way as Trump has hijacked the Republican Party - by a faction led by Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Elisabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders and now Zohran Mamdani.

But Americans won’t vote in a socialist government, I hear you cry. As a Brit who has been engaged with the idea of socialism for 40 years now, I would answer that, whatever they might call themselves, these four principled politicians are not socialists in any meaning of the word that need give cause for concern.

A More Inclusive America?

If you are an American concerned with the direction your country is headed, and would like to see a gradual re-orienting of your society so that:

• fewer children go hungry,

• fewer people are homeless,

• fewer people are incarcerated,

• fewer people become the victims of gun crime,

• more people have access to health care,

• growing inequality begins to be reversed, and

• control over economic policy is wrested from the hands of the super-rich and made democratically accountable,

then you are going to have to vote for people who campaign on these issues, and who offer a credible program for making progress in respect of each of them.

Trump was never going to reform the economy to give ordinary Americans a better chance in life. And if progressives are going to use democratic power to stop him winning - or suspending - future elections then, like the above four mentioned, they must campaign on a program of major reform.

I nearly wrote ‘radical reform’ there, but such a program is only radical if you’ve already succumbed to arguments that there is no alternative to current arrangements, and that a fairer, more inclusive society is impossible because of ‘human nature’ or ‘the balance of economic power’ or ‘uneven genetic endowments’ or some other spurious excuse peddled by the rich minority in order to protect their privilege.

If a new, well-organised opposition get its story right, if they use those parts of the media still committed to pluralism effectively - and they do still exist - then there is no reason why Trump cannot be defeated at the ballot box in 2026 and 2028.

But the current mainstream of the Democratic Party is not going to cut it. David Smith again:

‘And although Democrats have done well in special elections all year, the party’s brand is still under water. In July its approval rating hit a 30-year-low. Last week a Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos opinion poll found that 68% of Americans think Democrats are out of touch – more than the 63% who see Trump in the same way.’

There are still three years before Trump, or his successor, has to face the electorate. Three years in which Americans who wish to protect the civilizational achievements which underpin their great nation have the opportunity to halt and then reverse the slide to elite-driven, far-right authoritarianism.

Trump has nothing to offer the United States in terms of renewal come election time. As Aditya Chakrabortty described him in his column for The Guardian last week:

‘He is the buffoon presiding over his country’s decline in influence and importance, while behind him in the shadows the oligarchs carve up the spoils. And if democracy proves too troublesome, why, they’ll buy it. One of the biggest players in the New York elections was hedge-fund guy Bill Ackman, who offered to bankroll anyone who could bring down Mamdani.’

For America’s sake, and for the future of the world beyond its borders, Trump must be stopped. But how?

(1) Shore Up Democracy and (2) Reimagine the Economy

First, prevent the dismantling of democracy and the establishment of permanent authoritarian rule. This will require politicians prepared to speak truth to the economic power of the billionaire classes who nonchalantly provide Trump with photo-ops in The White House (shame on you Bill Gates).

It’s not a difficult story to tell. The majority of Americans are struggling because a tiny minority (it’s way less than one per cent) have persuaded mainstream politicians to recast the economy so it delivers ever more wealth into their pockets regardless of the consequences for everyone else. Zohran Mamdani has proved it is possible to effectively explain the consequences of this process, and so win votes.

Second: come up with a plan for how the economy might once again be re-configured, this time to ensure a more equitable distribution of wealth. This is harder to do: in the next few weeks I will write more on this subject, and not exclusively for a US audience: Over the next four years, Europe faces a series of key elections that could see the election of Trump-imitating politicians in Britain, France and Germany. Precisely the same kind of reforms are required this side of the Atlantic too.

There are many reasons for the rise of the far right, but when people feel an acute sense of economic injustice, and when they see politicians too afraid to face down minority power on their behalf, that’s when authoritarians win elections. Change these perceptions and the populists lose their audience.

Low regulation, finance-dominated free-market capitalism has not delivered the goods. Socialism - as conventionally conceived - is unlikely to do much better. And social democracy: a fudge that involves the large scale redistribution of wealth created by some, into the hand of others, and which usually leaves both sides discontented, is not the answer either.

We have to escape outmoded thinking, and recognise that the tried and failed modes of social and economic organisation have had their day. A genuine third way, a form of capitalism not dependent on the redistribution of wealth after its creation, but that redistributes the opportunities to create wealth more widely, so that more people benefit directly from the process, is achievable. People just need to believe it is possible, and support the - admittedly not insubstantial - reforms required. It’s what should happen in a properly functioning democracy.

So, Can America Save Itself?

I believe it can. And in doing so it could once again lead the world out of a crisis that threatens the remarkable civilization we have built. But it won’t be easy. It will require a major break with the way politics has been done - and the way economy has been run - for the last five decades. And it will take great courage on the part of a new generation of politicians; the kind of courage shown by a 34 year old New Yorker over the last few months.